I created the above graph sometime in 2012 after the 2011 Australian Census data was released. I didn't show my work in my excel document, so I don't know how I came to the adjustments after 2011, I assume I did some averaging and used that as the line is pretty flat after the known data.
I wasn't that close, I actually shared that image above on a forum and got told, no way would Australia be at almost 25% no-religion at the 2016 Census... yeah I was way under... glad I was.
Well I've done the graph again, saving my work this time. I averaged out the change over the last 10 census' (including the one where Christianity went up, and the one were no-religion went down and got the below... so this is pretty rough. Taking this as fact, Christianity will disappear between the 2111 and 2115 census. Of course it will be irrelevant to public policy long before then. It will be irrelevant as some economists put any idea at a rising tipping point or around 30%. 30% is when the idea (in this case non-religion) becomes popular enough to spend time addressing. 30% is when the rest of populace, politicians included need to start taking heed. Good luck, of course appealing to a bunch of non-religious, people who probably think at length on things that concern them, and likely have all different conclusions based on the data they have received.
Christianity will become a minority after 2041, this is pretty exciting as it is within my lifetime, hopefully no other magical or poor thinking takes its place of course.
I have lots of friends who have a much better grasp on statistics than I ever want to hold, so I am sorry that this has likely hurt your brain with its poor assumptions...
It is a fact that came out of this census, that us the non-religious outnumber the Catholics.
Showing posts with label ABS. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ABS. Show all posts
Monday, 3 July 2017
Thursday, 25 April 2013
Lest we forget
So as it rolled around to ANZAC day today, I thought I would look into non-believing ANZAC's. There is very little hard data on this, and unfortunately I have read in a comment on a similar sounding post here that if no Denomination was supplied on their enlistment papers they were given CofE. So their is likely to be no real hard data ever.
But we can go on standard statistics. The 1936 census didn't happen and their was only a "year book" the 1941 census was called off and the next one post WWII was 1947, but it showed if you look here; http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/2109.01947?OpenDocument at the PDF titled 2109.0 - Volume I - Part XVI Religion, that about 0.49% of the population was no-religion in one shape or another at this time post-war.
So we can take that 575,799 served overseas in WW2 so of that at least 2800 where non-believers of some sort. This is just in one war, not to mention WW1, Vietnam, Korea and every other horrible war we have been in.
This could be an interesting research project for someone but I have done my bit.
That aforementioned post does something to me though. I disagree with it, it paints the memorial as a religious service, which it is. But it should be something more. Those words Lest we forget have always struck me. Lest we forget and make the same mistakes and let a maniac into power, or sacrifice life for some silly idea such as the domino theory.
I have always held a reverence for our diggers, our ANZACs, it used to be religious as I would pray that war would end. Now I think their sacrifice was greater than I did before, I think the idea of the ANZACs deserves more reverence.
Lest we forget.
But we can go on standard statistics. The 1936 census didn't happen and their was only a "year book" the 1941 census was called off and the next one post WWII was 1947, but it showed if you look here; http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/2109.01947?OpenDocument at the PDF titled 2109.0 - Volume I - Part XVI Religion, that about 0.49% of the population was no-religion in one shape or another at this time post-war.
So we can take that 575,799 served overseas in WW2 so of that at least 2800 where non-believers of some sort. This is just in one war, not to mention WW1, Vietnam, Korea and every other horrible war we have been in.
This could be an interesting research project for someone but I have done my bit.
That aforementioned post does something to me though. I disagree with it, it paints the memorial as a religious service, which it is. But it should be something more. Those words Lest we forget have always struck me. Lest we forget and make the same mistakes and let a maniac into power, or sacrifice life for some silly idea such as the domino theory.
I have always held a reverence for our diggers, our ANZACs, it used to be religious as I would pray that war would end. Now I think their sacrifice was greater than I did before, I think the idea of the ANZACs deserves more reverence.
Lest we forget.
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